* Adj. EBITA -3%/-2%/+1% in '26e/'27e/'28e; North America delivers * We estimate positive EBITA growth in 2026e, in line with guidance * 11.2x '26e EV/EBITA, sentiment still under pressure for consultants
Improvements and setbacks in Q1
We are encouraged by the turnaround in North America, which is back to organic growth again (4% in Q1) after three negative quarters. This also means that comps now get easier, and combined with positive outlook comments about the region, we expect to see solid growth momentum in the coming quarters. Europe stood out with its 17% organic growth in Q1, but we note a tougher comp in Q2 (31% organic growth last year). which makes us somewhat more cautious in Q2e (although the business momentum sounds solid, with highlights across Germany, France and the defence sector generally). The setback in south-east Asia (Other markets segment) was a surprise for us: although we expect improvements in H2'26e, we make some estimate cuts here.
Small estimate changes
On the back of a solid Q1 report, unchanged FY guidance and small movements from FX, we cut '26e-'27e adj. EBITA by 3%/2% but increase '28e by 1%. Segment-wise, we increase EBITA in North America and Europe, but decrease in Other markets due to the weakness in Q1.
Sentiment remains under pressure, but could improve
On our revised estimates, the share trades at 11.2x 2026e EV/EBITA. The sentiment towards consulting firms (both management consulting and IT services) remains under pressure, with Accenture's share -41% L12M trading at 8.3x NTM EV/EBITA. Moreover, the average organic growth rates for Swedish IT services declined to -6% in Q1 and Knowit's share is -27% L12M. The effects from AI remain uncertain for consulting companies, where the bulls argue for increased demand and improved internal efficiency, while the bears argue for lower demand (as companies will do more themselves).