Nilörn: FX masks underlying stability - ABG
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* Relatively light comps in Q1e, but market still tough
* We raise '26e-'28e EBIT by 1-3%
* Trading at 6.3x NTM EV/EBIT
A solid underlying Q1e, offset by FX
We expect positive organic growth of 2% in Q1'26e, which implies sales of SEK 238m and adj. EBIT of ~SEK 21m, corresponding to a margin of 8.9%, in line with last year. We expect the gross margin to slightly decline (-0.2pp) to 44.6%, although we note that this is a strong Q1 margin in a historical context and that the GM is highly affected by product mix. We keep in mind that the Chinese New Year occurred in early January 2025, which caused customers to place orders in Q4'24 rather than Q1'25. Due to this, Q1'26e should face relatively light comps in terms of sales growth. We expect Nilörn's order intake to be within the range of SEK 230m-250m. This is in line with Nilörn's average order intake on an LTM basis, and ~10-20% above the historical average of ~SEK 205m.
Minor positive estimate changes
We have made minor positive changes to our '26e-'28e sales and EBIT, raising them by 2% and 1-3%, respectively. The changes primarily follow positive FX movements, as we cut our organic growth estimates due to EU retail sales having shown a slightly softer trend than previously anticipated. While we make positive changes to our GM assumptions, the impact from this is offset by an increase in opex in '26e.
Implied valuation
On our updated estimates, Nilörn is trading at 6.3x-4.1x '26e-'28e adj. EV/EBIT. For context, Nilörn has traded at a median of 9.4x NTM EV/EBIT over the last five years. We are optimistic about the mid-term outlook for Nilörn, as we expect an improving consumer climate that will lead Nilörn's clients to increase sales and build inventory, especially in the luxury retail market. Moreover, we remain encouraged by Nilörn's investments in its Bangladeshi production facility, and believe this will facilitate efforts to reach the 10% EBIT margin target.
* We raise '26e-'28e EBIT by 1-3%
* Trading at 6.3x NTM EV/EBIT
A solid underlying Q1e, offset by FX
We expect positive organic growth of 2% in Q1'26e, which implies sales of SEK 238m and adj. EBIT of ~SEK 21m, corresponding to a margin of 8.9%, in line with last year. We expect the gross margin to slightly decline (-0.2pp) to 44.6%, although we note that this is a strong Q1 margin in a historical context and that the GM is highly affected by product mix. We keep in mind that the Chinese New Year occurred in early January 2025, which caused customers to place orders in Q4'24 rather than Q1'25. Due to this, Q1'26e should face relatively light comps in terms of sales growth. We expect Nilörn's order intake to be within the range of SEK 230m-250m. This is in line with Nilörn's average order intake on an LTM basis, and ~10-20% above the historical average of ~SEK 205m.
Minor positive estimate changes
We have made minor positive changes to our '26e-'28e sales and EBIT, raising them by 2% and 1-3%, respectively. The changes primarily follow positive FX movements, as we cut our organic growth estimates due to EU retail sales having shown a slightly softer trend than previously anticipated. While we make positive changes to our GM assumptions, the impact from this is offset by an increase in opex in '26e.
Implied valuation
On our updated estimates, Nilörn is trading at 6.3x-4.1x '26e-'28e adj. EV/EBIT. For context, Nilörn has traded at a median of 9.4x NTM EV/EBIT over the last five years. We are optimistic about the mid-term outlook for Nilörn, as we expect an improving consumer climate that will lead Nilörn's clients to increase sales and build inventory, especially in the luxury retail market. Moreover, we remain encouraged by Nilörn's investments in its Bangladeshi production facility, and believe this will facilitate efforts to reach the 10% EBIT margin target.