Herantis: Biomarker analysis completed successful Phase I

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 1/9/2026 at 7:00 am EET.

Herantis published new results from the biomarker analysis. The results pertain to the Phase I clinical safety and tolerability study of the drug candidate HER-096, which incorporated biomarker research. The results suggest that the candidate exhibits biological activity in patients with Parkinson's disease. In practice, these positive results will affect the planning of the next research phase and could provide an advantage in partnership negotiations with a larger pharmaceutical company. We see no change in Herantis' overall outlook following the results, so we are reiterating our target price of EUR 2.5. Due to the increase in the share price, the risk/reward ratio is weaker, which is why we are lowering our recommendation to Reduce (previously Accumulate).

Biomarker analysis complements successful Phase I results

The newly published results complement the topline results of Phase Ib, reported in October 2025, which found that HER-096 was safe and well tolerated. The candidate also crossed the blood-brain barrier, reaching its target in the central nervous system. These new biomarker analysis results suggest that the candidate also has biological activity. In other words, HER-096 causes biological changes that it is designed to cause and that have been observed in previous animal studies. However, based on these results, no conclusions can be drawn yet regarding therapeutic effects on Parkinson's disease because the results do not reveal the effects of HER-096 on the part of the brain central to Parkinson's disease nor do they reveal its effects on patients' symptoms or disease progression.

HER-096 modifies biological processes underlying Parkinson's disease

The biomarker analysis was based on samples collected in the Phase Ib clinical trial of the HER-096 drug candidate. This randomized, blinded analysis, conducted using a high-quality study design, showed a biological response in patients with Parkinson's disease. HER-096 caused changes in processes that are relevant to the disease, such as proteostasis, mitochondrial function and neuroinflammation. According to the company, the findings are consistent with previous preclinical studies and the expected mechanism of action of the drug candidate. The study analyzed more than 2.5 million data points using a variety of methods. According to the company, the results were consistent across different methods.

Our estimates remain unchanged

In our opinion, the results of the biomarker analysis were positive and somewhat reduce the risk of drug development. In practice, previous tolerability and safety results have unequivocally supported transitioning to Phase II. In our model, we have assumed that the probability of transitioning to Phase II is already very high (90%). The new results therefore do not affect our assessment of the likelihood that the study will proceed or its timing. The remaining uncertainty regarding the start of Phase II, in our assessment, is related to financing, not science.

Risk-adjusted DCF model suggests that stock is fully priced

Our risk-adjusted forecasts consider the significant risk of failure in drug development, which we estimate is around 85%. We expect royalty-based revenue to start in 2033 and peak in the late 2030s. Our DCF model values the stock at EUR 2.5 and indicates that the share's upside is exhausted for now. The value of the stock may also materialize through a partnership agreement or a bid. The investment profile is characterized by a high return potential with a low probability and a high probability of loss of capital. In the short term, financing solutions are a key driver of the share price.