Source: Inderes

NYAB will publish its Q1’26 report on Thursday, May 7, 2026. We expect the company to start the year with double-digit revenue growth and a slight year-on-year margin improvement (adj. EBIT-%), supported by continued strong activity in the Swedish infrastructure and power segments. While we anticipate top-line growth to moderate compared to 2025, which also benefited from inorganic contributions, recent significant contract wins have materially de-risked our full-year estimates and provide strong revenue visibility for the remainder of the year. In the report, we will focus on qualitative comments regarding market outlook following a turbulent geopolitical landscape during the quarter, updates on potential large-scale contract awards, and margin trajectory as the expanded capacity continues to be absorbed into the project portfolio.

Order backlog and recent wins provide strong visibility into 2026

We forecast NYAB’s Q1 revenue at 119 MEUR, up 12% y/y, with growth primarily driven by the Civil Engineering segment (15% y/y), while Consulting is expected to grow more modestly at 4%. We expect market activity to have remained robust in Sweden across the power and infrastructure sectors, while volumes in Finland are likely to stay more modest as the market recovery continues at a gradual pace. A key focus point for us in the report is the development of the order book and the book-to-bill ratio, which stood at 0.9x at the end of 2025 and, in our view, signals moderating growth over the coming quarters, particularly as the company faces tougher comparison periods. That said, we believe recent order intake, including the railway modernization contract in Bergslagen (Sweden), has significantly strengthened the visibility for our 2026 revenue estimate of 614 MEUR.

Margins expected to show slight recovery as workforce integration matures

We estimate NYAB’s EBIT to amount to 3.4 MEUR in Q1, translating to an EBIT margin of 2.9%. This represents a slight improvement over the comparison period (Q1’25 adj: 2.5%), despite Q1 being seasonally the most challenging quarter due to winter conditions in Northern Sweden and Finland, which typically limit execution efficiency. This anticipated progress is supported by management's earlier comments regarding the normalization of workforce utilization following the rapid capacity build-up seen in early 2025. In the Consulting segment, we will monitor whether the division can stabilize its profitability after a somewhat softer performance in the final quarter of last year. Overall, we believe the trajectory toward our full-year EBIT margin estimate of 6.6% remains intact as the expanded workforce is further integrated into the project portfolio.

Market sentiment and potential large-scale contract awards in focus

Following the turbulent geopolitical backdrop of Q1, shaped by the US-Iran conflict, we will monitor management commentary on how external factors have influenced, or may influence, tender activity and project starts across NYAB's markets. We believe NYAB's contract mix offers reasonable protection, with a balance of long- and short-duration contracts and improved inflation pass-through clauses relative to the 2022-23 period. That said, we currently see margin risk as more concentrated around lost or delayed revenue from geopolitical disruption than from inflationary pressure per se.

On the contract pipeline, we will look for potential comments on the two Phase 2 awards, namely the Uppsala Tramway (~EUR 447 million) and the Svenska Kraftnät transmission line (~EUR 136 million), where management has flagged a potential signing timeline toward the end of Q2'26. The Finnish data center contract announced in February is also of interest, as it could reach ~100 MEUR if NYAB secures the more valuable construction phase. Any of these awards would strengthen the medium-term growth outlook and put upward pressure on our current estimates.

Lastly, the Early Works Agreement with SSAB in Luleå, announced post-Q1, will be an additional watch point for further details. In our view, NYAB's early involvement and established local presence could position it favorably for the full pump station scope and potentially for additional infrastructure work as SSAB's Luleå investment progresses.