Source: Inderes

Metacon will publish its Q1 report on Thursday, 7 May. We expect the report to show continued strong year-on-year revenue growth as the company executes its electrolysis project backlog, though we anticipate that earnings will remain negative. Our focus will be primarily on the company’s order intake, as we believe this is a critical driver for future revenue visibility, and on the progress of ongoing projects in Greece and Romania.

Revenue growth supported by project execution

We expect Metacon to report Q1 revenue of 77.4 MSEK (Q1'25: 50.1 MSEK), representing a year-on-year growth of 54%. The revenue is expected to be primarily driven by the continued execution and revenue recognition of the 50 MW Motor Oil Hellas project in Greece, as well as the 7.5 MW electrolysis project for Elektra Power in Romania. Year to date, Metacon has received various customer payments for the Motor Oil projects totaling approximately 4.1 MEUR (corresponding to approximately 44.4 MSEK), which reinforces our view that project timelines remain largely on track. Regarding order intake, we expect the Q1 figure to amount to roughly 10.4 MSEK (Q1'25: 117.8 MSEK), which is related to an add-on contract with Motor Oil for the supply of an oxygen purification system. As a result, we expect the order backlog to have reached around 115 MSEK at the end of Q1'26, which paves the way for continued revenue growth. We view the backlog as a key indicator of future revenue, as it consists of confirmed customer orders not yet fully delivered. However, as Metacon has not yet announced any new large-scale orders, we believe that revenue visibility for the coming years is low and the forecast risks are high.

Earnings remain negative during scale-up

We anticipate a Q1 EBIT of -12.1 MSEK (Q1'25: -15.1 MSEK). Although the expanding revenue base provides some operating leverage, we believe profitability continues to be weighed down by high fixed costs associated with the company's commercial scale-up. In addition, we forecast a relatively low gross margin of approximately 21%, suggesting that high variable costs will scale in line with project deliveries and keep the operating result in the red. Regarding the financial position, Metacon’s liquidity was strengthened in early 2026 by a 50 MSEK project financing facility from Fenja Capital, which we believe provides a necessary buffer to bridge the gap between supplier payments and major customer milestone receipts. Additionally, we believe that the milestone payments received related to the Motor Oil project should provide some support to liquidity.

Order intake is the critical driver for future visibility

Metacon does not typically provide financial guidance, and we do not expect a change in this policy with the Q1 report. Our focus remains on the company’s ability to secure new large-scale orders to support our full-year 2026 revenue estimate of ~381 MSEK. While the company has demonstrated its capability to deliver large projects like Motor Oil, a sustained order flow is essential to reach profitability and an eventual self-funded growth model. In the upcoming Q1 report, we will be closely watching for updates on the progress of the current order backlog, the demand environment in the European green hydrogen market, and further insight into the company’s financial position. Overall, we believe that until new significant orders are confirmed, uncertainty regarding the growth trajectory for 2026 and beyond remains high.