* Sequential sales decline, but order activity has improved
* We cut '26e-'28e EBIT by 11-8% on lower sales assumptions
* 16-13x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT
Sequential sales decline
We expect Q3 to see a sequential decline in sales, as Ovzon has not been able to fill the gaps from previously expiring contracts. Nevertheless, the terminal backlog remains robust, so we anticipate Q3 terminal sales of SEK 70m (vs. SEK 74m in Q2), as well as SATCOM sales of SEK 158m (vs. SEK 171m in Q2). This indicates a weaker product mix, which will negatively impact the gross margin. Nevertheless, we expect costs to remain well managed, and estimate Q3 EBIT of SEK 43m for a margin of 19%. Furthermore, we expect some normalisation of the NWC in Q3, following the receipt of a milestone payment in Q2. We anticipate Q3 FCF of SEK 23m.
Negative estimate revisions
Yesterday's order signing is positive, especially as it relates to a US customer, and supports our estimates. Nevertheless, given the high demand for SATCOM in general and Ovzon's strong momentum in 2025, we had expected Ovzon to sign more orders in 2026. It is difficult to gain a full understanding of the situation, but we believe this is due to the fact that 1) Ovzon is a small company bidding for large contracts, and 2) procurement has become more complex as countries increasingly seek to collaborate on SATCOM projects. Q4 is traditionally a strong quarter for order intake, so there could be more announcements before the end of the year. However, we are taking a more cautious view on sales, and therefore cut '26e-'28e EBIT by 11-8%.
Ovzon is active in an attractive niche
Modern warfare is increasingly fought across domains where satellite connectivity has become mission-critical, driving a structural, multi-year uplift in space investments. Ovzon has a proven track record, which bodes well for the future. The stock is trading at 16-13x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT.