Roblon (Investment Case): Second guidance cut, but Q3 order intake and outlook signal a stronger 2026/27

RBLN BResearch07.10.2026, 15.00

Summary

Roblon's Q1-Q3 2025/26 revenue decreased by 39% to DKKm 110.9, with negative EBITDA and EBIT before special items, leading to a second guidance cut for the financial year.
Q3 showed signs of recovery with positive EBITDA of DKKm 1.2 and increased order intake, signaling potential improvement in 2026/27, particularly in subsea energy cables.
Under the GPS-3 strategy, Roblon aims to reposition towards energy infrastructure, targeting DKKm 400+ revenue and DKKm 70+ EBITDA by 2029/30, supported by a strong balance sheet and recent portfolio simplification.
Key risks include customer concentration, project volatility, and execution challenges, while current valuation metrics show Roblon trading at a premium to book value, indicating a recovery case.

This content is generated by AI. You can give feedback on it in the Inderes forum.

Roblon remains in a cyclical trough. Q1-Q3 2025/26 revenue fell 39% to DKKm 110.9 (DKKm 182.3), with EBITDA before special items of DKKm -6.3 (DKKm 43.7) and EBIT before special items of DKKm -14.4 (DKKm 33.3). In August, management cut its full-year guidance for the second time this financial year to DKKm 150-170 revenue, DKKm -10 to 0 EBITDA and DKKm -20 to -10 EBIT. The weakness is concentrated in Composite, where an offshore oil & gas customer working down excess inventory and an anticipated lull in subsea energy cable orders cut revenue by DKKm 77.8.

Q3 brought the first signs of a turn. EBITDA turned positive at DKKm 1.2, and order intake rose to DKKm 61.9 (DKKm 38.6), a book-to-bill of 163%, lifting the order book back to last year's level at DKKm 53.7. Management expects a higher activity level in subsea energy cables and overall in 2026/27, and cost adjustments are expected to cut costs by around DKKm 5 this year.

Under the GPS-3 strategy launched in March 2026, Roblon is repositioning towards critical energy infrastructure, targeting DKKm 400+ revenue and DKKm 70+ EBITDA by 2029/30. The portfolio has also been simplified through the sale of the loss-making US subsidiary in July 2025, leaving a DKKm 33.4 loan and a preference share booked at zero.

The key investment reasons are the repositioning towards structurally growing energy infrastructure, a strong balance sheet with a 73% equity ratio and DKKm 95.2 in total cash resources, and the early signs of recovery in Q3. The key risks are customer concentration, lumpy subsea cable projects with a pick-up only expected from 2026/27, execution on GPS-3, and small-cap liquidity.

Near-term earnings multiples offer little guidance, as the guidance implies negative 2025/26 EBITDA and EBIT. On EV/Sales, Roblon trades at 1.2x versus a peer median of 1.0x, and at DKK 93.2 the shares trade at a modest premium to book value of DKK 82.3 per share. We see Roblon as a recovery case, but reaching the 2030 targets would require a marked and sustained acceleration in both revenue and earnings from today's level.

For further insights into the Q3 results, you can watch the event we hosted with Roblon: https://www.inderes.dk/videos/roblon-praesentation-af-regnskabet-for-3-kvartal-202526

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Roblon for a Digital IR subscription agreement. /Rasmus Køjborg, CFA & Jacob Frehr 15:00 07/10/2026

Roblon develops high performance fiber solutions and technologies with a history dating back to 1957, when the company was founded. Roblon produces the fibers, made of fiberglass, aramid etc. that are used to reinforce and protect vital cables in various industries. The company is divided into two main business areas – Fiber Optic Cables (FOC) and Composite. The FOC segment is usually a sub-supplier to large cable producers, where the end customers are typically global internet and telecom providers. The Composite segment is usually a sub-supplier to the producers of wires and cables, which supply global oil & gas companies as well as companies that are active within wind energy. Roblon is headquartered in Frederikshavn (Denmark) and has production facilities in Gærum (Denmark), Hickory, North Carolina (USA) and the recently acquired Vamafil in the Czech Republic. Roblon is thus active with production and sales in both Europe and the USA.